Capital
Misallocation
The
Multiplicative
Indictment
The Causal Barbell: Part 1
How much alpha does your hedge fund need to beat the index? You supply the assumptions. The arithmetic does not negotiate.
Market — feeds every tab
Defaults
These are starting values. Move any slider; the indictment is yours.
- 10-year hold
- 1.5-and-20, pod-level netting on, pass-through skipped
- ½σ² variance drag — conservative if the book is left-tailed
- Monte Carlo seed 20260910, 10,000 shared draws
- Cascade impact k = 0.09
- Shiller real total returns, 1871–2023
Tab 3 · Terminal wealth
10,000 paths. Same draws. Three strategies. Ranked on median log wealth.
Monte Carlo is deferred until you run it — 10,000 skew-adjusted paths, seeded at 20260910.